The 2010 Florida Senatorial election sans Mel Martinez

Focus on Florida

I'm doing a rare double-post tonight to catch up on some of the blogging that I've neglected over the last week due to final examinations. That miserable process is over and for the first time in my academic career, I honestly don't even care what grades I get, provided that they are high enough to allow me to pass and retain my 100% scholarship. That 13-year-old version of myself to whom I just composed the letter below would be quite disappointed :-P .

As many of you are probably well aware, Florida's Junior Senator recently announced that he will not be running for re-election in 2010. If you haven't, you can read about it here. By total coincidence, I recently finished reading Mel's book A Sense of Belonging. Despite my absolute and total disdain for Mr. Martinez's politics, the book itself was a fairly interesting read, largely apolitical minus the requisite discussion of Castro's effect on Cuba. Mel could have easily been a more successful Senator - unfortunately, his brand of hyper-conservatism resonates well with a large sect of Floridians - but his popularity has lagged largely due to perceived connections to George W. Bush (he was Secretary of Housing and Urban Development during Bush's first term.) In Florida, his current approval rating barely hovers above 40%, not pleasant territory for an incumbent Senator. Rick Santorum, anyone?

Since Florida remains the quintessential swing state, this will make the Senatorial election in 2010 remarkably fascinating to watch. In fact, back in 2004 Martinez was elected by a razor thin 1% margin. Beyond doubt and barring some momentous development, that race is now wide open. So who will run? Here are my top bets on both the Republican and Democratic sides.

For the Republicans:

1. Jeb Bush: The thought of Jeb Bush once again being a representative of Floridians is enough to render me nauseous, but he is beyond doubt one of the strongest potential contenders for this seat on the Republican side. For some (inexplicable to me) reason, Jeb remains highly popular among many Floridians (well, at least he left office with a high approval rating for a governor.) Bush, who is married to a Mexican American, has (or, least had) a strong appeal with many Hispanics: when he ran in both 1998 and 2002 he carried Miami-Dade County, heavily Hispanic one of the state's liberal strongholds but also an area with strong support for conservative Cuban politics. He certainly has name recognition. His brother has done irreparable harm to the "Bush" brand name, but I'm not entirely convinced that this will transfer to his brother. Beyond doubt, he is definitely a figure to watch as the election approaches.




2. Marco Rubio: The former Speaker of the Florida House is probably right below Jeb Bush in terms of Floridian politicians whom I cannot tolerate. Rubio has many things going for him, however. He is a strong conservative, actually pushing for a total elimination of the state's property tax when Charlie Crist was pushing for the much more moderate (and sane) Amendment 1 on tax relief. He's young (37) and Hispanic; he represented West Miami in the Florida House, could win (or at least split) Miami-Dade County, and it is very difficult for Democrats to win a statewide victory in Florida without Miami-Dade County. He is remarkably politically ambitious but currently in a bind - term limits in the Florida Legislature prevent him from running again there, coupled with a popular incumbent Republican governor - for which the Senate seat could be the perfect opening. Mr. Rubio has proven to be an effective politician, and he is definitely an up-and-coming figure to closely watch.

3. Connie Mack (IV; the son, not the father): More of a long shot than the other two, but still quite possible. Americans seem to love political dynasties, and Mack's father was of course a long-time representative from the west coast of Florida, before becoming a Senator for a short period of time. He is also relatively young (41), and a strong social and fiscal conservative. Name recognition certainly won't be a problem. He has served on the powerful Committee on Foreign Affairs and will have completed four terms in the House as of 2010, giving him more experience in DC than many of the other potential contenders. Definitely a potential figure for Florida Democrats to keep an eye on.




For the Democrats:

1. Alex Sink: My personal favorite for the election, a woman for whom I would personally campaign and support financially. She is the second Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of the state of Florida and the first woman to occupy the post; that position has only existed since 2002, a result of reforms that consolidate the old post of CFO with other positions. As the name implies, she is essentially the woman in charge of Florida's vast financial system. She is also the only Democrat currently serving in the Florida Cabinet, having won election in 2006 even as Crist, Gallagher, and McCollum (all Republicans) won statewide. Her message centered on her experience having served as President of Bank of America's Florida operations, and ability to use the position to effect change without engaging in divisive partisanship. She has done an excellent job as CEO by most objective standards, and she enjoys a high approval rating. Her 2006 performance was quite impressive, as she managed to defeat (or at least break even with) a Republican in some of the state's most conservative counties. And as silly as it might sound, I believe that, other than her common-sense politics and approachable style, she is largely able to tame down the normally rabid conservative vote in North Florida for one reason: she has a Southern accent, something rather rare among Floridians from Gainesville southward. Sink was born and raised in North Carolina, and her Southern accent might work the same type of magic for her in certain North Florida counties as it did for John Edwards (Edwards did not of course win Florida, but he carried a handful of rural North Florida counties and outperformed Barack Obama across much of the Panhandle and North Central regions.) And her marriage to Bill McBride, former candidate for governor, gives her at least some political roots in the state. I'm excited that Sink has expressed potential interest in the race, and will be closely following her actions over the coming months.

2. Allen Boyd: He's one of the longest serving House Democrats from Florida, which is quite impressive considering how socially conservative and pro-Republican his North Florida district is. He is effectively a "Blue Dog Democrat." Could he survive a primary election in a state where the Democratic vote is dominated by South Florida liberals not likely to be receptive to his type of politics? Time would tell. He is definitely qualified from an objective perspective: he has served in the House since 1997 and served on the powerful House Appropriations Committee. For me at least, a large part of his appeal is the fact that he could effectively tamper down Republican margins in conservative North Florida (quite similar to Alex Sink in this regard), while almost certainly winning the normally liberal areas in the state. There has been some public speculation that he has been considering running for the seat, so I'll be closely watching his actions.

3. Robert Wexler: Mr. Wexler is quite experienced - he served in the Florida Senate for six years before being elected to the House in 1996 (he represents a liberal South Florida district including parts of Broward and Palm Beach.) His liberal voting record puts him firmly in synch with South Florida Democrats, but might be problematic in other parts of the state. He has acquired significant political capital recently, having backed Barack Obama from early on and helped to shore up Obama's reputation among the state's large Jewish voting bloc (fellow Jewish South Florida Democrat Debbie Wasserman initially backed Clinton and has indicated that she has no intention of running; she represents what is arguably the most liberal district in the state.) He is somewhat of a media star, and I'm sure that his frequenty appearances on the Colbert Report might actually give him some appeal to younger voters (who knows?) I haven't heard very much regarding his potential entrance into the race, but I think that he would fare well in a statewide Democratic primary. In a general election...not so sure.

One thing is for sure - regardless of who runs, 2010 in Florida is going to be a very exciting political experience! Stayed tune for more on this race - I am certain that this is just the first of many posts on my part discussing this race.