Election '08 and the LGBT community

LGBT(IQ) Happenings

Well, that is clearly still quite a while away from reality. But we can dream, can't we? :-)

Just some of my quick thoughts on how the upcoming election will affect queer Americans:

• I'm fundamentally optimistic, upbeat, and just downright cheerful about what's about to happen when I think about how much my life will improve as a gay citizen. It cannot be emphasized strongly enough that no matter which candidate wins, it will be an improvement over George W. Bush's disgraceful record of gay-bashing and anti-equality activism. The key question is whether the scope of changes in policy affecting gay Americans will be a marginal difference (McCain) or a fundamental reversal in direction.
• Of course, the gay vote is anything but monolithic. I have never met a gay social conservative, but there are plenty of them; and there are even more gay libertarians and fiscal conservatives. Still, Gore won 70% of the LGBT vote in 2000, and Kerry swept it with 77%. About 4% of the electorate identified themselves as gay in each of those 2 elections, and I expect that percentage to rise slightly this year (not because there are more gay people in the population, but because slowly and surely it is becoming more acceptable in our society to be openly homosexual.) Continuing and enforcing these trends, I expect that Obama will win a minimum of 80% of the LGBT vote. In some close states like Florida, that increase in strength among gay voters could make a difference; think of places like Orange County, Florida - home to Orlando - a county that is typically split right down the middle, usually leans ever-so-slightly Democratic on Presidential elections, but has a very large gay population (the largest in the state after South Florida.) When Bush won Florida in 2000 by fewer than 600 votes, it is hardly inconceivable to think that even something as seemingly inconsequential as a minor uptick in gay voters and the gay vote margin could flip a county, and even the overall statewide results.
  
• And to those roughly 15-20% of LGBT voters who are leaning McCain, I would strongly urge you to reconsider. Maverick on our issues, he is anything but. A President Obama means the long overdue passage of a fully-inclusive ENDA; McCain has indicated he would veto that legislation. President Obama will finally sign into law comprehensive hate crimes legislation; McCain will not. Both men may oppose the Federal Marriage Amendment, but only Obama supports full equality for gay couples on principle. Obama will work to overturn the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), which currently prevents married gay couples in CA, MA, and CT from realizing the full scope of Federal benefits available under marriage; McCain has consistently stated strong defense for maintaining DOMA in its current form. President Obama will push for an end to the disgraceful "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy and allow outed homosexuals to serve in the armed forces; McCain will not. Obama supports adoption by gay couples; McCain does not. Don't get me wrong; I do not consider John McCain to be the stereotypical Bible-thumping bigot that we have all grown to know too well in the actions of George W. Bush. But John McCain, like so many Republicans on the Christian right, does not believe that LGBT citizens should be treated like "normal" Americans. He does not believe that we are full citizens and, consequently, does not believe that we are entitled to the same basic rights as those "normal" Americans. Raging anti-gay hatred like Bush, it is not, but rather the common right-wing disdain for minority communities. A vote by a gay citizen for John McCain is the effective equivalent of an African American voting in 1968 for George Wallace; a direct attack on his or her own civil rights.
• And of course, it isn't all about the candidates! I predict that Florida's Amendment 2 will fail, but I believe it will get the support of a majority of the electorate (low 50's - maybe 53 percent?). As you might know, constitutional amendments in Florida require 60% support to pass. I'm also afraid that this majority of support for Amendment 2 will embolden the folks behind it to strip out the "substantial equivalent" language, make it purely about "gay marriage", and bring it back in a few years - as was done in Arizona (when Proposition 102 was defeated in 2006, the "substantial equivalent" stuff was taken out and now we have Proposition 107.) Time will tell. Meanwhile in California, I believe that Proposition 8 will fail narrowly; probably a classic 51-49 or 52-48 vote. Arizona's Proposition 107 is truly a toss-up, but at this point I would expect it to pass ever so marginally by riding on the coattails of McCain (who, by the way, has unabashedly supported it.) And that ludicruous Act 1 in Arkansas, which would ban adoption by any unmarried couple, will fail by a margin of around 55-45; I would not feel so confident if it were a measure designed to explicitly prevent adoption by gay couples.
• We must keep the momentum going, especially on the marriage issue. I have a fiery disdain for Bible-thumping right-wing conservatives, but I also firmly believe that the vast overwhelming majority of Americans are simply not like that when it comes to gay rights. Not at all. We are a fundamentally fair, just, and rational country; when people saw images of brutalized Emmett Tilll and churches being bombed in Birmingham four and five decades ago, all but those on the lunatic right-wing fringe were outraged and demanded change. Similar sentiment erupted after the brutal and senseless murder of Matt Shepard. Most Americans do not share the hateful view of homosexuality espoused by those such as Tony Perkins and James Dobson; they are much more like the (Republican) mayor of San Diego, Jerry Sanders, who reversed his decision and came out swinging for gay marriage after considering the equality implications for people like his lesbian daughter. Many of them may have never been exposed to a perfectly happy, normal homosexual couple. The more that people like them realize that married homosexual couples are no different than married straight couples, the more and more public tolerance for anti-equality legislation will diminish. This is why it is critical that we continue to advocate for expanded same-sex marriage in the liberal states - New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Oregon, Washington, and others where there is a real probability for significant short-term change. New York is especially important in this struggle, because, just like California, it is one of the most populous states and an indisputable symbol of American culture. When we have gay marriage in New York, California, and several other states - maybe 6 or 7 in total - I truly believe that we will begin to see seismic shifts in public opinion on this critical equality issue.
  

Change is in the air. To steal the HRC's catchphrase, this is our year to win - and win we will.