Election '08: My Final Prediction

Politics and Society

When the polls on the West Coast close this Tuesday, I am highly certain that networks will be announcing what would have seemed unthinkable only a decade ago; thanks to the hard work and aspirations of Americans all across the county, the world's only remaining superpower will have just elected its first African American President. I am, of course, highly partisan in this debate and cannot pretend to be otherwise. I have supported Barack Obama since very shortly after he announced his candidacy, I have donated monthly to his campaign since May of last year, and I believe that he will finally put an end to a flawed politics, dominated by a reactionary social conservatism and supply-side economics, that were the norm in the Reagan/Bush era. And perhaps just as importantly, I believe that he has demonstrated his remarkable ability in this campaign to unify our country and unite Americans once again behind a common vision. In the negative, highly divisive ways that they ran their campaigns, both Hillary Clinton and John McCain vividly reminded us of what another 8 years of this dumbass mudslinging and political infighting will accomplish. In an Obama Administration, gone will be the Bush politics that always attempted to distract us from real substantive issues by dividing us over and over again, whether it be city versus country, gay versus straight, educated versus uneducated, native-born versus immigrant, religious versus secularist, or any of the other myriad culture wars that rose to primacy under the disastrous Bush regime. Those divisions certainly exist and certainly delineate important cultural boundaries - salient cultural differences in many cases - but they will never serve as the basis of a short-sighted, hyper-partisan and cynical "us versus them" Rovian political calculus under an Obama Administration. I need no further proof of that than how this remarkable politician has conducted his own campaign.

That being said, this will still be a relatively close election. It will certainly not be a landslide. As in 2000 and 2004, I believe that only a handful of key swing states will ultimately determine the outcome. And here's my view on how things will go; take it for what you will.

General Analysis

• The Republicans remain the party of the South, as McCain will gain more than 70% of his electoral vote (EV) total from Southern states; I also believe he will carry every state in the region with the exception of Virginia, and less possibly, Florida (see below.) It cannot be stated strongly enough that these are both states on the cultural margins of the South; Florida has been at the farthest edges or beyond those margins for decades now, and Virginia finds itself facing major demographic changes.
  
• The Great Plains also remains strongly Republican; there has been some talk of a potential Obama upset in North Dakota, but I do not see this materializing.
• Obama will make major gains in the Mountain West, but McCain will still win most of the states in this region.
• And as has been the case for the last 20 years, the Northeast and West Coast will be out of reach for the Republican. Between these two regions, the only state that is even possibly questionable, in my view, is New Hampshire. And given the high-level of Democratic in-migration to New Hampshire and that state's disdain for George W. Bush, I don't even consider it a swing state in this election.
  

Pivotal Battleground States

Virginia

• The biggest key here is Northern Virginia. When Fairfax County flipped to support Kerry after 40 straight years of supporting Republicans, it became evident that something fundamental was shifting in this region. Jim Webb owes his job to the region, as does Tim Kaine. NoVa has essentially become the southernmost point of Northeastern cultural influence and it is the most rapidly growing part of the state, now accounting for a full third of Virginia's population.
• Another thing on NoVA, but related to the first trend; it is one of the most affluent and highly educated regions of the country. More than half of all residents there are college-educated, and nearly half of households see six-figure incomes. These types of liberal professionals are among Obama's most consistently strong constituencies.
  
• I've always seen Virginia, at least to a large extent, as "Kentucky with black people." Virginia has one of the largest African American populations in the nation - just over 20% - and I guarantee you that the state will see its highest African American voter turnout in history - and that Obama will carry a minimum of 90% of that vote.

New Mexico and Colorado

• In the case of New Mexico, it must be noted that Gore carried the state in 2000, and Bush only barely won it in 2004. Polls have consistently shown Obama leading here for months; McCain may claim "maverick" status on immigration, but his party's nativism is going to cost him rather significantly here. Besides, New Mexico is not culturally conservative, as are fellow Mountain states like Wyoming and Utah. As just one example, it is by far the most progressive state in the Mountain West region when it comes to LGBT rights.
• Colorado is a relatively secular, high-income, and highly educated state; we know who benefits from those trends. Polls have been consistently leaning Obama here in this case, outside of the MOE, and it is a state where Democrats have made significant inroads (Salazar, etc.) Obama will dramatically outperform what Kerry did in 2004 in Denver's suburbs - Douglas (well, more an exurb, I don't expect incredible stellar results here, just progress), Jefferson, Adams, and Arapahoe.
  

Iowa

• Clearly, this state has long been friendly to Obama and hostile to McCain. It was where Obama dealt Hillary the "upset heard 'round the world", and McCain lost it by significant margins in both the 2000 and 2008 primaries. McCain barely even visited the state for the primaries this year, and he hasn't even bothered to soften his rhetoric regarding how ending ethanol subsidies will be one of his top priorities. All-in-all, a no-brainer.

Florida and Nevada

• Along with Ohio, these are still true "toss-up" states and could realistically go either way. I believe McCain will carry both by narrow margins, though it would hardly surprise me if Obama won one or both.
• See my earlier post "Can Obama win Florida?" for a discussion of politics in my home state. To summarize again, it is a state of "moderate politics with occasional excesses of right-wing Republicanism." If Obama wins here it will be because of the real estate bust. Our relatively old and undereducated population, combined with his late arrival, will hurt him significantly.
• Nevada, I think, is the ultimate toss-up in this race. Just as with Florida, if Obama wins he can almost certainly chalk it up to economic anxiety related to the real estate debacle. The state has grown at such a breakneck rapid pace that I don't have an enormous amount of faith in polls. A large minority population will likely help Obama, but this is also one of the most undereducated states in the country.

Ohio

• Also a state that could go either way, I haven't been firmly convinced that Obama is really ahead here. McCain was slightly up in most of the polls until relatively recently, and Obama's lead in the polls here can still be entirely overtaken by the MOE and still undecided voters. Compare this to polls in (nearly) demographically identical Pennsylvania, where Obama has been consistently up by impressive double-digit margins. I worry about how well Obama will do in the Mahoning Valley area; plus, areas along the Ohio River are essentially Kentucky with a different name, and that needs no explanation. The state's two largest metros are on opposite sides of the state and, at exactly the same size, balance each other out; those are of course the rather conservative city in the southwest (Cincinnati), and the rather liberal city in the northeast (Cleveland.) Blue collar "Reagan Democrats" are the norm across most of the industrial middle, with the rural counties being much more Republican. One major factor that will hurt McCain here, however, and could lead to his defeat - he simply cannot galvanize the white evangelical vote the same way that George W. Bush did in 2004 (and of course, the presence of the anti-gay rights amendment on the ballot that year boosted his performance as well.)

The most significant thing in this election is that Obama can reach 270 EVs without Florida and Ohio. 50 state strategy, not quite, but we're getting there. :-)